Saturday, March 11, 2023

Will China Invade The Philippines?

Why would China attack an ally?

Two years ago China though that all the ASEAN and nations that surround the South China Sea could come together to create the world largest free-trade zone. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Here is a map of members.

and here is a list.

You will note that the Philippine is a member. Given the China is the defacto leader of RCEP I suspect that China and the Philippines are on good terms because if they weren’t then the Philippines would NOT be a member.

If you look at the list of names you will find that most of the members are, supposedly, anti-China - nation such as Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Yet here they all are willing and able to work in a confederation of nations that will happily work together.

RCEP is expected to control 30% of the worlds economy in the near future and if you go through the list of members a large number of under-developed or developing. That suggest that’s the rich nations will, for a while, be carrying the largest load until those poorer nations are given everything they need to develop at a far faster rate than they have been which could see the 30% control of the worlds economy could rise far higher.

All the anti-China rhetoric from the US and her Western allies is bull-shit and the bull-shit is because the Western nations and the US are terrified that they are going to be far less relevant in the future than they are today.






Emirio Syauqi Pratama

I assume you're asking this because of the Spratly Islands dispute.

In my opinion. this is an unlikely scenario because of 3 reasons.


1) China and the Philippines need each other economically. They rely on each other heavily for trade.


2) The USA. If China does invade the Philippines, the US is obligated to help the latter due to their strong alliance, and no military in the world is stronger than the US military.


3) NATO. Technically, the archipelago isn't a NATO member due to its location in the world, but since they gained major non-NATO ally status in 2003, they will have access to the US military aid.

Hope this helped.)


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